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[riolis]

Small hit spells like say:
Firebolt Casting Cost: 3 Spell List: Firewalker
Target any enemy unit. Immediately inflict one point of damage on the target unit. The target unit must generate saves against the damage. Multiple castings increase the effect or target another unit.

Now lets say a Cantrip is used to cast this during a melee attack, could you use it or similar spell to force a rare or monster to roll for a save (sounds dumb but follow). If I worked this right you for it to roll for one save but then even if it save it would still have to roll a save vs the melee attack, right?

After all what are the odds of some low saving unit getting 2 save rolls.
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[piMaster]

[ddicerc]

Another victim falls prey to the Gambler's Fallacy...

Whatever the odds are of a unit rolling a save, they remain exactly the same whether or not it just rolled one previously. So attacking a larger unit with a single Firebolt, for example, means that you waste the spell on a unit you can't kill anyway, AND you do not change or reduce the odds that that unit will roll saves anyway.

If that were the case, then think about this: It would also be true that if you attacked a rare unit with a single Firebolt, and it failed to save, it would then be MORE likely to roll a save. That is also untrue, of course.

The reason it seems to be valid is that it is true that it is difficult to roll two saves in a row AS A SEQUENTIAL PAIR. Even a unit that has a 50% save probability will only get two consecutive saves 25% of the time. However, in the case you are citing, the rolls are not a sequential pair, but two isolated events. Thus, the probability doesn't change.

There are a few DD events that require sequential save rolls (such as Red Dragon Breath effect-save to avoid death, and if you fail save or be buried) where you could calculate the odds of failing both save rolls (since if you succeed on the first there is no second roll, you can't "make" both). Even in this case, the odds for each individual roll remain exactly the same, though.
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[DEEPBLUEB2]

ddicerc

[ddicerc]

I'd like to take credit for the name, but it's standard terminology in logic circles. It arose due to the phenomenon of gamblers in particular to look for "hot" or "cold" dice, machines, wheels, etc., assuming that once they get into a groove they stay in that groove, rather than recognizing that hot and cold streaks happen. (This, of course, assumes unbiased dice, etc., but cheating's a whole 'nother story.)

A little OT, here's a question to try on people to test whether they might be susceptible to this: Are you more likely to hit the lottery by choosing your own numbers or taking a quick pick (machine generated set of numbers)? The answer is each is equally likely, but many people believe that human-selected numbers are better.
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Steve "DDice" Braun
The Diceman's Gaming Pages: http://ddicerc.weebly.com
2014-2015 U.S. National Champion
(Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse...)

[chuckpint]

Actually the real answer is that you are more likely to get bitten by a shark and at the same time get hit by lightning, than to win most lotteries. OK, maybe I'm exaggerating a bit, but you get the idea. In any case, the only reason that most state lotteries are won at all, is because tens of millions of people enter it.

Chance of shark attack: 1:10,000,000 (1e-7)
Chance of Lightning strike: 2.5:1,000,000 (2.5e-6)
Chance of winning PowerBall: 1:146,107,962 (6.8e-9)
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